Monday, January 23, 2006

Energy Blackmail

On New Year's Day Russia's energy monopoly Gazprom cut off gas to the Ukraine, its former satellite, after demanding a quadrupling of the price. A quarter of Europe's gas flows through the Ukraine from Russia, and while emergency negotiations quickly restored the flow, the move shocked Europe:
Critics of the Kremlin say the rise was punishment for the Orange Revolution in 2004 which brought in a westward-leaning government that promised to remove Ukraine from the Kremlin's sphere of influence.

The American State Department said that "such an abrupt stop creates insecurity in the energy sector in the region and raises serious questions about the use of energy to exert political pressure".

Russia is again making a bid for major power, though using energy blackmail, not nuclear blackmail as its weapon of choice for now:

President Vladimir Putin adopted almost warlike terms when he spoke on television as the hours ticked by before the ultimatum expired.

"If no clear response [from Kiev] follows, we will conclude that our proposal has been rejected," he said.

If Ukraine's reserves run out, it could be tempted to siphon off gas intended for other countries. It claims the right to do so in lieu of transit fees.

The cut-off coincided with Russia assuming the rotating presidency of the G8 leading industrialised nations.

With colder than normal temperatures sweeping Eastern Europe, the Ukraine today admitted it is holding back some gas from Europe for its own use, at least temporarily:

The Ukrainian premier said Ukraine had consumed a record 407 million cubic meters of gas in the past day, some 43 percent more than during an average winter day when temperatures hover around 0 C (32 F).

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have persisted over a new gas pricing deal signed by the two sides on January 4 that resulted in the near-doubling of the price Ukraine pays for natural gas.

The Russians are also working on a pipeline to connect with Germany directly via the Baltic Sea, eventually bypassing the Ukraine.

Clearly energy must be considered a matter of national security for us. We can't just rely on the Strategic Oil Reserve to cover us for short term emergencies, we need to view ANWR as a neccesity. This last time round the bill stalled in the Senate, before Russia pulled this nasty stunt. Let's recognize that the proposed drilling area in Alaska is the size of a golf course:

The vast majority of ANWR will be completely unaffected by drilling. It would occur only on a small part of the coastal plain where there already is some human habitation. There are plenty of truly pristine places in Alaska worth preserving, but ANWR's coastal plain isn't one of them. As it is, Alaska has 141 million acres of protected lands, an area equal to the size of California and New York combined.
Migrating caribou herds have grown dramatically in similar drilling areas over the last 20 years, and the majority of Alaskans, including the tribes who live closest to the proposed site, are in favor of it.

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