The Superstate Next Door

Wisconsin elects its governor this fall. Last time round it was a quirky 3-way race which allowed trial lawyer and Democrat Jim Doyle to eke out a victory. This time the race is up for grabs. The American Spectator outlines a few fundraising glitches Governor Doyle has had. Sounds like Illinois.

Doyle's Republican opponent, Rep. Mark Green, has had some indirect Abramoff donations, which he intends to give to charity.

In any event, a Republican win in November could help pull the state into the Red column for the 2008 presidential election, absent Democrat vote fraud in Milwaukee.

In 2004 I remember hoping we'd win Iowa this time and it came through. Now Minnesota may be in play as well. The midterm elections will be a leading indicator of 2008, depending on how these states go. Will all politics be local, or will the president's lame duck difficulties drag down Republicans? But there's more than one incumbent to draw voters' ire. Here's a Washington Post interactive map for the key fall elections. Weekly Standard, via RCP:

MINNESOTA IS AT THE CENTER of a political superstate I call "Minnewisowa"(Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa), which could be a vital battleground for the presidential elections of 2008, as it was in 2004. Minnewisowa has 27 electoral votes (more than Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, or Michigan), and its component states not only vote similarly, but, since 2000, are also among the most competitive "swing" states in the nation.

In this year's midterm elections, all three states have competitive contests for governor. The GOP could pick up the executive posts in Wisconsin and Iowa, with two sitting congressmen as candidates--Mark Green (if he wins the Wisconsin GOP nomination) and Jim Nussle in Iowa. That's the good news for Republicans. The bad news is that both these House seats, now vacated, could be won by Democrats.

The incumbent Republican governor of Minnesota, Tim Pawlenty, is favored to win reelection....

The major battle in Minnesota and the region will be for the Senate seat being vacated by incumbent Democrat Mark Dayton. Congressman Mark Kennedy successfully warded off an intraparty fight for the GOP nomination, and this seat is probably the best opportunity for a GOP pick-up in 2006.

Remember Dayton was the guy who fled Washington as being too dangerous. Powerline has more in "Profiles in Disgrace". Thankfully he chose to only serve one term.

I don't think the superstate name will catch on. Minnehaha is about as complicated as most people want to get. And it's a long time until November, and further until 2008. But for those who like to bet on the political horse race, here's an opportunity. Throw the Illinois' governor race into the mix too. Rasmussen here.

The Midwest trifecta plus.