Iran on the Brink

On the eve of the latest UN deadline Iran continues to defy the international community in developing nuclear capabilities, supposedly for peaceful energy purposes, laughable from a major world oil supplier. And at the same time it proclaims this peaceful development Iran openly calls for the destruction of one of its neighbors---the one nuke final solution for Israel.

But for those who still think ignoring the whole issue will make it go away, think again. The MAD deterrence of the Cold War won't work here. As Iran realizes, Israel is not far. But neither is Iran from other threatened and interested parties. Robert Haddick, TCS, RCP says passivity will lead to an arms race:

We won't find these stabilizing conditions when a complicated, three-sided nuclear arms race breaks out among Israel, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. In the Middle East missile flight times are too short - a sneak attack would be very effective. Early warning systems are fragile or non-existent, and retaliatory forces and command and control structures will be vulnerable to destruction in a first strike. Relatively small nuclear arsenals will result in no survivable retaliatory redundancy. Nuclear forces will have to be kept on extremely high alert, a launch-on-warning status. The slightest hint of attack, even if false, will trigger a nuclear weapons launch. Under such conditions, there would be a tremendous incentive in a crisis for any of the countries to rapidly use its nuclear forces before they were destroyed. National survival will depend on disarming the enemies before being so disarmed.

Iran is on the brink of making a monumental mistake. Will the West just watch, or hold firm to hold back the coming catastrophe.

UPDATE: Don't count much on Europe, as usual, especially Germany and France. WSJ:

In the absence of an official embargo against Tehran, private EU companies have sought commercial opportunities in Iran. But the real story here is that these businesses are subsidized by European taxpayers. Government-backed export guarantees have fueled the expansion in trade. That, in turn, has boosted Iran's economy and--indirectly by filling government coffers with revenues--its nuclear program.