Huckabee's Catholic Problem

Interesting post. Found it on Wikio politics. Huckabee's Catholic problem. A sensitive issue explored by a liberal Jew (Map of Romney red, Huck blue):

Despite his statewide victory, he ran into serious trouble in Catholic counties, who went strongly for Romney. I guess I have to ask whether or not the data is skewed by non-Catholic (and evangelical-heavy) areas just went hard against Romney because he's Mormon (while Catholics were less disposed to be automatically biased against him), but to my poorly trained eye it looks like Klinkner separated those variables out. Debaser raises the possibility that Catholic concentration in urban areas presents a confounding variable, which seems a legitimate point. But it wouldn't surprise me if Huckabee was at least underperforming among Catholics.

Iowa for a start. Underlying post with stats, analyis and maps.

In general, Catholics vote like the rest of the population, but churchgoing Catholics have trended Republican, though the war stalled that. But now that the surge is succeeding, social conservative values may reassert themselves and bring Catholics narrowly back to the Republican camp. I have to say as a Catholic, Huckabee's language seems to exclude me. This does show that Huckabee is divisive, by bringing a specific sect to the fore, rather than speaking of Judeo-Christian principles. He is doing a disservice to people of faith.

More on the Catholic vote. Political Insider in December:

The 2008 election could be won or lost on the Catholic vote. There are nearly 70 million Catholics in the United States, according to Mark Penn's estimates in "Microtrends," and most of them reside in crucial swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and the Southwest.

More importantly, they have a track record of picking the winner. "In every presidential election since 1972 the winner of the Catholic vote has won the national popular vote, something no other religious group - Jews, evangelicals, Protestants - can boast," Tom Schaller noted in his Salon article on Monday.

Catholics have historically sided with Democrats, but George W. Bush made significant inroads in 2000. "One of the untold stories of the [2000] campaign is how the Bush forces worked subtly through little-publicized channels to win over strong, tradition-minded Catholics, obviously with some success," Michael Barone wrote in a 2001 National Journal election postmortem.

Bush barely lost the Catholic vote in 2000, but four years later he took 52%. In 2006, when the issues shifted back from guns to butter, Democrats picked up 55% of the Catholic vote on their way to a national rout. In 2008, Catholics will be decisive but it's uncertain which issues will motivate them.

More to explore on this one.

Latest polls in Michigan, via RCP.

And in case you missed it, Romney backer Hugh Hewitt on the long campaign.

UPDATE: Redstate here and here:

Dear Governor Huckabee,

You don't know me, but I am your lone supporter among the contributors here at RedState. Anyone who has read my posts on a regular basis understands that I support your candidacy primarily because I truly believe: (1) you are the most eloquent spokesman for a "Culture of Life" of all the presidential candidates; and (2) having a true-blue social conservative as a top-tier presidential candidate advances the pro-life causes I care for so deeply.

That having been said, I am also a devout Catholic, and I have to say that I am troubled by your decision to preach to Cornerstone Church this coming Sunday in San Antonio, Texas; a church pastored by a raving anti-Catholic bigot.

UPDATE: Catholic League on Huckabee's appearance at Cornerstone.(Apparently McCain reached out to Cornerstone too, but fair or unfair I don't hold McCain as responsible as he is not as attuned religiously--he is a basic all-American Judeo-Christian principled guy who was reaching out after he dissed evangelicals in 2000. I think Huckabee knew exactly what he was doing and has no excuse.)

UPDATE: NRO Symposium, "What Romney needs to do in Michigan"

UPDATE: Former Domino pizza magnate and Michigander endorses Romney.(And given the title of this post, Monaghan is a...Catholic, since the Huckster has segmented the faith-based vote.) The Swamp.

UPDATE: Rich Lowry on Huckabee's crossover appeal, lots, but this:

But basically it looks like he won evangelicals and very few others. He got 33 percent of the evangelical vote and 7 percent — less than Ron Paul — of non-evangelicals.

And Romney held up well after Iowa.

Related post: Smugglers for Huckabee, Update on NH