Tuesday, January 08, 2008

McCain Wins

John McCain wins in New Hampshire. FoxNews calls it. So the race continues. On to Michigan, where McCain beat Bush in 2000, but Romney grew up there.

Looks like fewer independents went for Barack and went for McCain.

UPDATE: Fox exit poll analysis shows McCain got voters who gave him credit for pushing for a change in military strategy, for supporting the surge, and in part for the success of the surge. He also garnered some votes of people who were mad at Bush (presumably mostly independents, or flinty porkbuster types). Romney's camp says after his strong debate performance on Sunday voters started trending their way, but they ran out of time.

UPDATE: One thing to watch is the numbers exclusively of Republicans or Democrats. If Romney or Clinton win their own parties, they can claim a victory of sorts, at least a justification for going on and continuing to amass delegates.

UPDATE: The other thing to think about is that this might augur well for Republicans, that they are getting some credit for their national security stewardship.

UPDATE: McCain wins among voters of every age except seniors.

UPDATE: Mitt Romney made a very gracious concession speech, but very upbeat to go on. 7:57 pm. Michael Barone says heavy turnout is in more downscale industrial areas, and are going for Hillary. Heavy turnout trending for Hillary, not Barack.

UPDATE: McCain speech. Flags waving, chants of USA. Ends with this thought, I will remain true to America, so help me God.


UPDATE: Mark Steyn on the enthusiasm chasm narrowing:
Bill Gardner, New Hampshire's Secretary of State, is reporting that maybe 20,000 more people voted in the Democratic than in the Republican primary. If so, that's not bad for a party whose base is supposedly demoralized in a state swept by a Democrat landslide just over a year ago.
UPDATE: McCain is winning among Republicans as well as independents, though the race is tightening.

UPDATE: Here's the story from some Mitt bloggers:
GOP Ballots cast:

54% were conservative

35% were moderates

12% were liberal

Among conservatives Romney wins with 37% - 30%

Among Moderates McCain beats Romney 43% – 26%

Among Liberals McCain kills Romney 45% - 14%

Perhaps Obama was a victim of his own hype, which caused some independents to jump over to vote for McCain.

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