Michigan Moment-um?

(Updating all day)
The contest shifts back to the Midwest, as Blue State Michigan votes today. Reeling from a one-state recession, Michigan voters are receptive to a GOP message on the economy--will they go Romney or McCain?

Novak says McCain has some 'splainin' to do on taxes.

Detroit Free Press says it's neck and neck. Bit on Romney:

Romney, a successful venture capitalist and former Massachusetts governor, talked to Michiganders in a language they know -- cars -- and played up his lineage. He grew up in the car business. His dad, George Romney, ran American Motors Corp. -- remember the Rambler? -- before becoming Michigan's governor. And he recalled a childhood of watching the Hudson's Thanksgiving Day parade and drinking Vernors.

(Vernors? Vernors. "Barrel-aged, bold taste" One of its variants is the Boston Cooler.)

Detroit News says it's decision time.

The RCP average has Mitt up by 1, but this doesn't include the latest Michigan Mitchell poll, which has a widened Romney lead, ahead by 6--35%-29% (Huckster at 12%)

UPDATE: Jason, MyManMitt, on the ground in Michigan. In neighboring Illinois, Chicago Tribune, front page story, "Republican talk revival for Michigan". (Illinois primary on Feb.5th, early voting has started.) WaPo:

"Detroit can only thrive if Washington is an engaged partner, not a disinterested observer," he told a group of business leaders at the Detroit Economic Club, adding that during his first 100 days in office he would convene a working group of industry, labor, congressional and state leaders to devise a national policy aimed at helping automakers. "I'm not open to a bailout, but I am open to a work-out."

As part of his plan, Romney said he would back spending an additional $20 billion over five years to federally fund research on energy, fuels, automotive technology and material sciences; modify a recently passed measure calling for U.S. vehicle fleets to average 35 miles per gallon by 2020; and ease automakers' financial burden by expanding health-care coverage nationwide.

Romney's remarks pleased many in the lunch audience, including Terry Daoud, a Detroit Ford dealer who said that while the auto industry bears some of the blame for its current predicament, it needs a more sympathetic partner in Washington. U.S. automakers are striving to make more fuel-efficient cars, he added, but may not be able to meet the new requirements in time.

"We know our ills," he said. "Give us a chance to cure it on our own timetable without constraints that will choke us."

While Romney tried to woo Republicans through speeches and local media interviews, his campaign was operating 15 call centers that had placed more than 100,000 calls to likely GOP voters by last night. His staff was targeting party members in the state's three most reliable counties: Macomb, Oakland and Wayne.

UPDATE: Jonathan Cohn, TNR, Romney finds his voice--Motown Mitt. Jonathan Martin, The Politico, McCain faces little incoming fire.

UPDATE: Call-in this morning with Michigan GOP chairman gleans this. WaPo:

New York: Any word if there will be a meaningful number of "mischievous" crossover votes in your primary, as a result of the campaign on Daily Kos?

Saul Anuzis: No, I don't expect much ... the Democrats have a "anti Hillary" effort on their side, which should minimize any games on our side. [snip]

Fairfax, Va.: Are you concerned about possible efforts by Democratic activists to influence the results by voting in the GOP primary? If Democrats, in a concerted effort, helped one GOP candidate win over another, who received greater support from Republican and/or independent primary voters, would you consider that victory legitimate?

Saul Anuzis: I'm not expecting too many Democrats to cross over and vote on our side. In 2000, exit polling showed about 17 percent of the Republican primary voters were Democrats.

The Dems have an active effort going on in their own primary. Sen. Clinton is the only one on the ballot, but the Obama, Edwards and other "anti-Hillary" forces are organizing a "uncommitted" vote.

You can imagine what an embarrassment that would be.[snip]

New York: How popular was George Romney when he was governor, and what percent of Republican voters today were voters when he was governor?

Saul Anuzis: He was very popular and well-respected. If you're 50-55 or older you remember him and probably fondly. I'm 48 and only remember getting my picture taken with him when my Cub Scout troop visited the Capitol.

UPDATE: The Corner, "Michigan, Vote for Romney". Mark Levin audio.

UPDATE: There was talk of snow today in Michigan, which normally depresses turnout, but for the most committed voters, which would help Mitt. This side of Michigan, around Chicago, we had flurries yesterday, but have sunshine now. Weather.com's webcams around Michigan show cloudy or clear. It is cold though, after a recent warm spell. Forecast continues for light snow.

UPDATE: Reading Byron York's post on Romney (though I think he is too quick to write off Mitt), I am reminded by his mention of Ramblers that I passed my driving test in that "nerdy" but sturdy car. It was the one we kids drove. My parents had the Mercury.

UPDATE: NRO Campaign Spot: Anecdotes of low turnout.

UPDATE: In South Carolina, Fred finally goes after McCain on having betrayed the Reagan vision...(and the Huckster). Video at HotAir.

UPDATE: Absentee voters for Romney?

UPDATE: David Freddoso, The Corner says he hears turnout will be HIGH (?)

UPDATE: Latest RCP poll averages have Romney up 2.7, Intrade is at 50-50 at noon.

UPDATE: McCain or Romney. Voters' thinking at NRO. One McCain voter, one for Romney:

In the end, however, I couldn't vote for McCain. I like and admire President Bush, but I disagree with him on so many domestic policies (Medicare, immigration, education, etc.), but each of these domestic policies are what President Bush campaigned on. Could I stand by for the next 4 to 8 years repeatedly being upset for McCain on immigration and other issues? No, in the end I decided to vote for Romney, because issue by issue he lined up with what I want in a President (who is also viable in NH, because I could argue that Thompson is also good). I think with a little more time, Romney could have pulled a win out of NH. And another telling statistic from the New Hampshire exit polls, shared by another reader. McCain cleans up among those who found it most important that their candidate "says what he believes." Romney won among those who wanted a candidate that "shares my values."

UPDATE: From Carl Cameron's blog at FoxNews:"Michigan Turnout at Noon"

3 to 6 inches of snow fell around Detroit overnight.
GOP officials say light turnout so far is in keeping with forecasts of about a million votes cast today in the republican primary.
In 2000 when John McCain won, 1.3 million votes were cast- 17 percent of McCain’s votes were from indies and dems.
Light turnout and weather this time could mean fewer non-GOP votes. That could be good news for Romney.
If polls are to be believed ALL the trend lines are in Romney’s direction…albeit within the margin of error.

UPDATE: Metaphor alert from some other Mitt bloggers! McCain starts primary day with tour of funeral home. WSJ Washington Wire.

UPDATE: Michigan righty blogs roundup (from RedState): The Michigan Conservative Dossier, Republican Michigander, RightMichigan So far all low turnout reports.

UPDATE: Intrade has Romney with a decisive lead, for what it's worth 65% to win, 35% McCain. At noon it was 50-50. Just jumped to 75 after I posted. Time 3:20

UPDATE: Jonathan Martin, The Politico. McCain lowering expectations, for what it's worth:

Aside from anecdotal buzz about low turnout, nobody has a great feel for what's going on here in Michigan.

But that hasn't stopped McCain's camp from already trying to spin the meaning of a loss here.

UPDATE: 3:57 Some news stories on turnout. Detroit Free Press:

Around metro Detroit and across the state, turnout has been so low for the presidential primary that some clerks predict the majority of votes will come from absentee ballots.

Mitt made a big push for those votes early on.

In heavily Republican Ottawa county in western Michigan, heavy snow fell throughout the morning, said Anna Perales, acting deputy city clerk in Holland.

“We had a blizzardy morning,” Perales said. “It was very slow at the polls. The majority is going to be by absentee vote.”

UPDATE: This looks very good for Mitt: Marc Ambinder:

Early Exit Poll Trends

Buzz words: The Economy. Republicans. Issues.

** A majority say the economy is their top issue; nearly 70% say the US economy is poor

** More (57%) care about issues than leadership qualities (40%)

** 68% of voters in the Republican primary identified as Republican; a quarter said they were independents and 7% said they were Democrats.... (in 2000, only 45% said they were Republican)..

** 44% say they decided in the final week

UPDATE: NRO Campaign Spot: Predictions of a Romney win--his late gut level appeal.

UDPATE: FYI:

Polls close at 8 p.m, and 9 p.m., Eastern

Polls close at 8 p.m. this evening, and most of Michigan is in the eastern time zone. But the four counties of Dickinson, Gogebic, Iron, and Menominee in the western Upper Peninsula are in the Central Time Zone.

UPDATE: OK guys, it's lookin' good!!!! I'm turning on Brit's show now and putting some champagne in to cool. The next and I will start a new post will be after the victory celebration! If it's victory, that will be tomorrow!! Cross your fingers. High 5 the MITT!

Related post: Political Junkies' Dream (looking ahead to the Republican convention--could be brokered)