Are we miserable yet?

Well, I'm a political blogger, not an economic prognosticator, but it surely looks to me like the misery index is back in play unless the Democrats and the Obama administration change their ways. Political risk for this economy is at an all-time high, and Democrats control all the levers of power in Washington--they are responsible.

The advent of high inflation and high unemployment under President Carter in the 70's coincided with my entering the workforce as a new college graduate. I was lucky to get a job and appalled at my after-tax paycheck. That lesson impelled me to switch from the Democrat party I was raised with to the GOP and Ronald Reagan and has stuck with me. Now as I approach retirement age I think about all the unsustainable promises government-loving politicians have made, and yet they make more.

What I look at are the level of state and federal taxes and the threats to raise them, the country's debt burden, and incentives or lack of them for economic growth. The unhealthy housing market is a huge drag and will be for a while. (After all, Democrats are invested in "affordable" housing.) If this fall President Obama rolls back the unspent stimulus, kills the ill-judged cap and trade bill, and starts from scratch on health care reform in a truly bipartisan manner, that would send a signal to millions of Americans that the economy can start moving again.

But if President Obama and his big government gurus and unaccountable czars don't get out of the way, I think the economy will stall until the 2010 election when we get more direction. Unemployment is at levels we haven't seen for decades, and if we don't get a handle on government spending high inflation may follow. A year from now, polls and the market may predict the election outcome, much as the Lehman collapse did in 2008, but this time the change may be back to a GOP Congress--a check on the party of The One, a vote for prosperity and limited government. Tea parties have arisen for a reason, and town halls may continue to be rowdy--until Americans have their say and make their ballot choice.

P.S. This post in response to a question by Carl Lavin of the Forbes' Bloggers Network:

Question:
September 15, 2009 marks the first anniversary of the fall of Lehman Brothers and the global financial meltdown.

What is your economic forecast for 2010? Are there specific economic markers that you find particularly useful and upon which you rely on in making your prediction?