Giannoulias Poll Suspect

Like everything else about Alexi, the boy banker to the mob turned Illinois Treasurer.

Just got off a conference call with the Kirk campaign discussing the Giannoulias' poll showing him leading, essentially unchanged from earlier takes. How credible is that on its face? Illinois voters have learned more about Alexi's role and attempted cover-up of the Bright Start fiasco in recent months, as well as the risky loans Alexi approved as an officer of the family Broadway Bank, now teetering on insolvency.

Why else would Giannoulias' Democrat primary challenger David Hoffman have made up so much ground in the last days of the campaign, if voters' views hadn't changed? Clearly they are looking for an alternative.

Which leads us to a closer look at the poll itself--the undecided is set at an improbably low 6%, a number termed as laughable by Kirk's pollster, who points out Rasmussen had it at 14%, [Correction: Rasmussen 10% undecided, 4% another candidate] and further noted that there is a Green party candidate who will presumably cut into Democrat Giannoulias' support. And then there's the indicator that Alexi's supposed lead of 4 points is the margin of error.

I asked whether we could conclude there was an enthusiasm gap. Even given the early primary and cold weather Dem turnout was depressed, plus there were contested races in both parties--and whether we could read anything into this for the fall.

Kirk's pollster cited the outsize Democrat turnout in the 2008 presidential election, and confirmed that given the results in New Jersey and Massachusetts it's fair to say we will see much higher Republican numbers this fall.