UPDATES below. Maybe not quite***A governing majority, without having to form a coalition. Watching the liberal BEEB on C-Span. They've just shown some turnovers, swinging from Labor to Conservative, some of the seats from the Tony Blair sweep 13 years ago. And exit polls in at least one key area have undercounted the conservative vote bigtime. Following tweets from Patrick Ruffini and Toby Harnden.More.
GayPatriot RT @jonabennett After 23 years it seems certain george galloway is out of parliament. // THANK GOD. #tcot #ge2010Gee, who will coddle Hezbollah now and make fine speeches? What major political figure will be so ripe for bribery and corruption?
More. Michael Barone is blogging this at the DC Examiner, watching Sky News and other sources. Twitter here.
More. England swinging conservative but perhaps not enough elsewhere--Scotland swinging more labor? That said, though Gordon Brown won his home seat, he looked glum. So perhaps it will be a coalition govt. after all but not headed by him.
More. The BEEB is looking happier. But all are confused.
...We have NASCAR dad and soccer mom, they have motorway man and motorway woman. Apparently young, childless and negative equity. Um, not comparable. But, um, they go for celebrities and the conservative is more charismatic. Um:)
This reported by the leftist organ The Guardian.
...The Beeb cuts away from an overly "fastidious" election judge reporting the unmarked ballots to another district. For a minute I thought they were speaking Welsh. Actually, they are, at least the place names. Two conservative wins in a row. BIG Victory there. Over 13% swing in the last, 6% in the prior. I have an Evans ancestor around there somewhere. The BEEB describes the loss to Labor--it's as if an asteroid has hit.
...But the BEEB is keeping a stiff upper lip, that the conservatives may not eke out a definitive victory.
Though they say the Lib Dems seem not to have made much of a splash, even with one good debate by Nick Clegg. The squeeze of the middle is a real "nutcracker" they say.
...
tobyharnden
RT @stupendous_man: RT @JMcDonaldScot: The swingometer is up and down like Edwina Currie's knickers in a Tory cabinet #ge10More. The Economist has a cool map.
More. Now the BBC website has switched the header from something like a thin majority to this: Conservatives head for big gains
A more positive headline, but still not definitive on governing without a coalition.
More. Conservatives gain Carlisle from Labor, up by the Scots border, a seat Labor has held since 1964 if I heard correctly:) It's 4 am in the UK...so the BEEB asks who's in charge of the country...
...even earlier, according to these guys:
TimMontgomerie Carlisle now has a Conservative MP for the first time since 1959 according to Mr @IsabyAnd it's over a 7% swing. But will it be enough? Per Harnden:
Will Hutton says on BBC prob with a Lab-Lib Dem govt being formed is that it wld be a "coalition of the defeated". Absolutely. #ge10(The Hawks are not playing tonight vs. the Canucks so why not follow this, hmm?)
You know, this is so muddled. I think the two party system here forces more clarity, frankly. It's amazing anyone can govern there, with 4 countries under one umbrella, and big government choking individual initiative for years and years. I hope to God the conservatives can pull this off. We could use another ally in the fight to get back to fiscal sobriety and freedom for the future.
...BBC puts exit poll up, pix above, they have the results so far up now on Big Ben, no pix--will fade with daylight before they get the final results.
...Conservatives take Jacqui Smith seat from Labor, in Redditch, the former Home Secretary--she was the scandal charging her husband's porn movies to taxpayers and barely living in the district--big rebuke.
PatrickRuffini Waiting for the Gryffindor declaration......Conservatives gain from Labor in Pudsey. Love the name. Add some sherry.
...the BEEB has a helicopter tracking the single car, well maybe two in the entourage, of the conservative leader on the motorway heading to London. The loser Labor Prime Minister Gordon Brown is flying back from Scotland.
...Pudsey is a significant swing, 7.6%. Conservative charismatic, local fundraiser for a hospice. What a guy. Pudsy is apparently up north in Yorkshire--but the commentators say, what about the London conundrum? Apparently they don't have those results in yet. As one election official described it, a Victorian system. Well, it has its virtues. There is something endearing about seeing each constituency televised.
...a minute to 5 am there:
Cubachi RT @conservatives Simon Reevell replaces Shahid Malik as the MP for Dewsbury, the first time we've taken the seat since 1983.God, I hope this never happens in the U.S. This is so hard. God Bless the Brits. Take your country back. You need an army of Iron Ladies. Don't ever give up.
PatrickRuffini So, Tories already lead Labour by 50 seats... the projected exit poll margin, with 250 seats still to declare.
tobyharnden Jacqui Smith doesn't thank her husband. Funny old thing that. #ge10
DanRiehl Britain's budget deficit is set to eclipse even that of Greece next year http://tinyurl.com/3y9lua6...One university seat in Birmingham not go conservative as hoped (they're calling for a recount), but Oxford seats swing from Lib Dem mushy middle to conservatives.
It's like trench warfare.
...Oh Lord, it's the Brown car they're following. Cameron was earlier, plus Clegg was talking on the phone in the car amidst the hedgerows...but, Brown not going to No. 10, going to party HQ. (A good sign:)
More. 12% swing. Alok Sharma wins for Conservatives from Labor in Reading West.
Looks like a coalition govt. though. If Brown stays the UK is toast.
...London is key. Maybe minor parties will pull enough away from Labor to give it to the Conservatives. It's morning there. Breakfast news.
...Oh, and this is funny. The centrist Lib Dem leader doesn't know if he's won his own district yet. They keep their polls open until 10 at night, so they go late in the count.
...They have a Monster Raving Loon party, one running in Clegg's district. Clegg wins. Over the loons and Labor. There is also a guy named Wild Goose running for the English Democrats.
I have to say, it has a certain charm, all these parties. Beats the LaRouchies.
UPDATE Friday morning. The Conservative David Cameron makes an open offer to form a government with the Lib Dems. Watching coverage online.
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