State of Play

Illinois is mostly Obama country, given that he's from Chicago and represents the state in the Senate. He'll get most of the city and put the collar counties in play, but downstate is anyone's guess, especially given his recent clueless and contemptuous remarks on small town America and his flip-flop on guns. The NY Times highlights the age divide in Pennsylvania, which will be a plus factor for Democrats in aging parts of Illinois as well, but not if Hillary's not on the ballot. Those votes, along with blue collar workers and Catholics, may migrate to McCain in the fall.

Rahm Emanuel is talking big in The Politico about the Dem Foster win in former GOP House Speaker Dennis Hastert's district. He is supposedly concerned that suburban voters worry their standard of living may be in jeopardy with a slowing economy (which some Democrats have demagogued as a Depression--don't know much about the economy, don't know much about history--Congress--take this quiz today!).

Granted, the loss of the district was a blow, but the GOP primary was a bitter one, dampening their later special election turnout against Foster. By the fall tempers may cool, and reality may set in--a vote for a Democrat is a vote for huge tax hikes. James Pethokoukis, US News:

Barack Obama intends, if elected, to nearly double the capital-gains-tax rate to 28 percent—higher than the 20 percent rate when President Clinton left office—from its current rate of 15 percent. But capital-gains taxes may be going even higher. [snip]

In a recent chat, Austan Goolsbee, Obama's economic adviser, told me that the candidate was not in favor of equalizing income and capital-gains rates. Yet consider this: Obama says he intends to, at minimum, make the budget deficit no worse. But in my conversation with Goolsbee, it was clear that the campaign is underestimating the size of the 2009 budget deficit by $100 billion or more.

And 100 million middle class voters own stock which would be at risk with a rise in capital gains taxes.

Votes may well swing back, but Republicans have their work cut out for them to reestablish a reputation for porkbusting and fiscal sobriety. Sen. McCain at the head of the ticket will help. Porkbusting is a McCain signature issue and he's outlined a pro-growth, low tax strategy for the economy. One good sign McCain means it is his new initiative on a pernicious tax:

Among the better ideas John McCain announced last week is a ban on new cellphone taxes. For America's 257 million wireless subscribers, the GOP Presidential candidate is advancing a sensible policy with political punch.

A recent analysis by economist Scott Mackey in the journal State Tax Notes shows that the average monthly tax burden on wireless customers is more than 15% – double the average sales tax burden. In some states, such as New York (big surprise), the total tax bite is more than 20%.

This appeals to voters of all ages, but especially younger voters, whose income is more iffy and who may not even have a land line. McCain is also making the case for free trade, which should resonate with Illinois voters who understand exports create jobs and demonizing those who create them with punitive measures leads to more job losses. Plus Rahmbo may have some other problems of his own, district by district.

The Tribune downplays talk of a second Depression. And the Dem primary battle shifts next to neighboring Indiana. The race is still in a state of play nationally, and congressional district races around here are just starting to ramp up for the fall contest.