Friday, March 06, 2009

Red Lights Flashing

UPDATE: OK, our bleepin' hair's on fire now. Michael Ramirez.***President Obama are you listening? We need change we can believe in. Red lights are flashing--stop and think. WSJ:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell another 281 points yesterday, or 4%, while President Obama began his political push for nationalizing health care and Barney Frank called upon state, local and federal officials to prosecute "those people whose irresponsible and, in some cases, criminal actions helped bring about this crisis." (In what must have been an oversight, Mr. Frank left himself off the target list.)
The downturn's at 15 months, so Americans cut you some slack because this started before your presidency, but you are our president now and your Democrat party controls all the levers of power (Congress has been Democrat these last two years as well, when you were in the Senate):
The recession of 1973-75 lasted 16 months and job loss was also worse. Many Americans may have forgotten those nasty recessions because the last two -- in 1990-91 and 2001 -- were only eight months long and shallow. But even in the worst modern downturns, after 15 months the sources of recovery were forming and the end was in sight.
The larger point is that economies don't spiral down forever without a reason and without policy encouragement. What's worrying about the plunge in equities since January 2, and especially in the last week since Mr. Obama released his radical budget, is that it has come amid the unveiling of the President's policy agenda. Equity prices have reacted to those proposals by signaling that they expect a much deeper and longer recession.
Job numbers came in worse than expected-- frightening. We can't afford to risk our future with a wholesale remaking of America. Michael J. Boskin "Obama's Radicalism is Killing the Dow":
The illusion that Barack Obama will lead from the economic center has quickly come to an end. Instead of combining the best policies of past Democratic presidents -- John Kennedy on taxes, Bill Clinton on welfare reform and a balanced budget, for instance -- President Obama is returning to Jimmy Carter's higher taxes and Mr. Clinton's draconian defense drawdown.

Mr. Obama's $3.6 trillion budget blueprint, by his own admission, redefines the role of government in our economy and society. The budget more than doubles the national debt held by the public, adding more to the debt than all previous presidents -- from George Washington to George W. Bush -- combined. [snip]

Increasing the top tax rates on earnings to 39.6% and on capital gains and dividends to 20% will reduce incentives for our most productive citizens and small businesses to work, save and invest -- with effective rates higher still because of restrictions on itemized deductions and raising the Social Security cap. As every economics student learns, high marginal rates distort economic decisions, the damage from which rises with the square of the rates (doubling the rates quadruples the harm). The president claims he is only hitting 2% of the population, but many more will at some point be in these brackets. [snip]

From the poorly designed stimulus bill and vague new financial rescue plan, to the enormous expansion of government spending, taxes and debt somehow permanently strengthening economic growth, the assumptions underlying the president's economic program seem bereft of rigorous analysis and a careful reading of history.

Unfortunately, our history suggests new government programs, however noble the intent, more often wind up delivering less, more slowly, at far higher cost than projected, with potentially damaging unintended consequences. The most recent case, of course, was the government's meddling in the housing market to bring home ownership to low-income families, which became a prime cause of the current economic and financial disaster.

On the growth effects of a large expansion of government, the European social welfare states present a window on our potential future: standards of living permanently 30% lower than ours.
I'll leave you with this thought. OK, another one--we need hope! Mr. President--start with blocking the omnibus bill and rethink your punishment of the American Dream.

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